MBA聯考【雙語閱讀】抉擇時刻

After　three years’　work, an independent report recommends building another runway at Heathrow. That will be tricky.

在經過長達三年的討論評議后，英國機場管理委員會公布獨立報告(戴維斯報告),公開表示支持倫敦希思羅機場第三跑道的建設。這將成為英國一個棘手的問題。

Jul 4th 2015 | From the print edition

WHEN Heathrow opened in 1946， it was little more than a muddy airfield and a series of tents. Since then the airport, now the second-busiest in the world by international passenger numbers, has changed dramatically. Each day about 200,000 people pass through its gleaming terminals. But as Heathrow has grown, so too has opposition towards its further expansion. This means that the recommendation on July 1st by Sir Howard Davies, an economist, that the government build another runway there could provoke a big political fight .

1946年希思羅機場投入運營之初，僅是一個泥濘的機場，散落著許多帳篷。那時的小機場如今發生了翻天覆地的變化，以國際乘客流量計，希思羅已經成為世界第二繁忙的機場。每天都有將近20萬名旅客穿梭于其燈火通明的航站樓。但隨著希思羅機場的規模日漸擴大，反對其擴建的呼聲也越來越高。如此一來，經濟學家霍華德.戴維斯爵士于7月1日公布的支持政府修建希思羅機場第三條跑道的提議將會引發激烈的政治斗爭。

Few doubt that London, Europe’s financial centre, needs more airport capacity. Last year its three main airports (Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted), with four runways between them,handled 130m passengers, 16m more than New York’s main three, which have nine. Heathrow is operating at full capacity, and has been for at least five years. It carries more freight by value than all other British airports combined. Gatwick, Britain’s second-busiest airport, is full 80% of the time.

絕大部分人認為倫敦作為歐洲的金融中心，需要更大的機場容積量，以增強倫敦的空中旅客運輸能力。去年倫敦的三個主干機場(希思羅、蓋特威克、斯坦斯特德)共四條跑道的旅客吞吐量達1億3千萬人次，比紐約的三家主干機場共九條跑道的旅客吞吐量還多1600萬人次。希思羅機場目前處于滿負荷運轉中，這種高度緊張的狀態至少已經持續了五年。它所承載的貨物在價值上比英國其他機場所承載的總和更多。蓋特威克僅次于希思羅，是英國第二繁忙的機場，在其80%的運營時間是滿負荷運轉的。

This congestion is damaging. As routes become busier, ticket prices go up and other hubs, such as Dubai International, become more attractive to travellers. Dubai has already overtaken Heathrow in terms of the number of international passengers (see chart).

這種交通擁堵是極具破壞力的。隨著各條航線日趨繁忙，機票的價格會逐漸提高。如此一來，其它樞紐機場例如迪拜國際機場對旅客們將更具吸引力。目前，迪拜的國際旅客流量已經超過了希思羅。

Without expansion, both regional and international passengers lose out . As airports become more crowded, fewer domestic flights can be slotted in , potentially hindering business people in places such as Manchester and Newcastle who use Heathrow to transfer to America or Asia. Crowding also leaves less scope to emerging markets. In 2013 just over 40 weekly flights went to China from Britain, compared with 60 from France and nearly 80 from Germany. Sir Howard and his team estimate that expanding Heathrow could boost GDP by 0.65-0.75% by 2050.

由于沒有擴建第三條起降跑道，希思羅機場失去了許多境內和國際乘客。由于機場日漸擁擠，幾乎無法新增國內航線，因此可能會延誤許多在曼徹斯特、紐斯卡爾等地準備經由希思羅飛往美國、亞洲的商人們的行程。交通擁堵使得新興市場國家的發展空間也更為狹小。在2013年飛往中國的航班中，與法國每周60次和德國每周80次的航班數相比，從倫敦出發的僅有40個班次?；羧A德爵士以及他的團隊(英國機場管理委員會)估計，如果希思羅擴建，到2050年能夠拉動英國GDP增長0.65―0.75個百分比。

Yet if the costs of leaving bulldozers idle are big, the political consequences of getting them started could be equally colossal. When David Cameron, the prime minister, was a fresh-faced leader of the opposition he boasted “no ifs, no buts, there’ll be no third runway at Heathrow”.When in government,rather than deal with the issue he appointed Sir Howard to look into it, which conveniently put off the decision until after the recent election. Now Sir Howard’s report is out, but at a time when Mr Cameron is already dealing with his MPs squabbling over Europe.

如果說擱置擴建計劃、閑置推土機的成本很大，那么讓它們投入工作也會產生非常嚴重的政治后果。當戴維.卡梅倫首相尚且還是初出茅廬的反對黨領袖時，他曾信誓旦旦地說：“沒有如果，沒有但是，希思羅不可能有第三條跑道。”在(卡梅倫)執政的過程中，他并未直接處理這個問題而是交由霍華德爵士去深入調查了解，"機智地"將問題推遲到最近的大選之后再做決定?，F在霍華德爵士的報告已經有了結果，但卡梅倫正忙于解決他的國會議員關于歐洲問題的爭論。

At least five cabinet ministers are against it, along with several well-known MPs. Opposition to the expansion of Heathrow helped Boris Johnson, the Conservative mayor of London,achieve a resounding victory , and he is still staunchly opposed to it. If Mr Cameron wants another Tory in City Hall then expanding Heathrow could put him in a pickle. Zac Goldsmith, the MP for Richmond, the Tory front-runner to replace Mr Johnson, has already threatened to resign from his seat if another runway goes ahead.

包括幾位著名的國會議員在內，至少有五位內閣大臣對此報告持反對意見。倫敦市市長，保守派的鮑里斯.約翰遜對希思羅擴建的反對使他大獲全勝,并且，他仍將堅決反對這項議程。如果卡梅倫希望下一位倫敦市長仍是保守黨人,那么希思羅的擴建將讓他陷入困境。極有可能取代詹森.約翰斯的里士滿國會議員扎克.戈德史密斯甚至威脅道，如果修建第三條跑道，那么他將辭職。

Meanwhile, six marginal seats sit under the flight path in west London, and their well-heeled constituents are more vocal than most. Two of these―Brentwood and Isle worth, and Ealing Central―were won by Labour from the Tories in May’s general election by candidates who specifically asserted that they were against expansion. Although the number of residents affected by aircraft noise has decreased sharply over the past two decades, as planes have become quieter, it still affects over 200,000 people (see chart). Air pollution, already high in areas near the airport, would increase and could blight up to 47,000 homes unless a low-emission zone was put into place.

與此同時，分布于西倫敦飛行航線的六個邊際席位以及其中較為富有的選民相比絕大多數選民更直言不諱。在五月的大選中，明確宣稱反對擴建的工黨競選者從保守黨手中贏得了其中的兩個席位―――布倫特伍德和艾爾沃斯，以及伊靈中心區。在過去的二十年里，飛機飛行逐漸變得安靜，受機場噪音干擾的居民人數雖已急劇減少，但仍有20萬居民受其影響(見表)。機場附近的空氣污染已經十分嚴重，除非建立一個低排放區，否則情況將不斷惡化甚至可能殃及47000個家庭。

Sir Howard and his team have tried to pre-empt the protesters. They suggest that a new runway at Heathrow, to the north-west of the two existing ones, be complemented by a series of concessions to local residents. Flights leaving after 11.30 pm and arriving before 6 am should be banned. A fourth runway should be ruled out by the government through law, they think. Compensation to those who have to move should be more generous, while the airport should pump more cash into the local area. The government should impose a noise levy on airports that are particularly disruptive, similar to those in France and America. The commission looked at the question of airport capacity as a “kind of balancing act,” says Sir Howard. With enough compensation, local opinion may be tipped in favour of expansion.　

　霍華德爵士和他的管理委員會試圖先駁回那些反對者。他們建議在希思羅機場現有的兩條跑道的西北邊新建一條跑道，并通過一系列措施對周圍居民進行補償。飛機降落時間不得晚于晚上11點30分，同樣，起飛時間不得早于早上6點。他們認為，政府應該通過法律否決關于第四條跑道的提議。機場應該對當地投入更多資金，被迫搬家的居民們也應獲得慷慨的賠償。政府可以參考法國、美國的做法，對破壞性特別強的機場征收航空噪音污染稅?；羧A德爵士說，機場管理委員會將機場容積量的問題視為“一場左右逢源的游戲”。有了足夠的賠償，公眾可能會更傾向于擴建機場.

But all this depends on how the government reacts to the report. It would be embarrassing for Mr Cameron, who claims to be pro-business, to ignore it. Yet there is always the chance that ministers will prevaricate, postponing a definite decision yet again. After all, Sir Howard’s report follows on from others in 1971, 1978 and 2003, all of which were shelved after a few years. Or, ministers could plump for the politically and environmentally less toxic option of building another runway at Gatwick. Sir Howard and his team did not back the idea, but neither did they dismiss it.

然而一切都取決于政府對這份報告的態度。如果“忽視”這份報告，必將使聲稱重商的卡梅倫陷入尷尬的境地。至今，大臣們仍可以對此提議搪塞敷衍或者再次推遲最后決定的時間。畢竟，霍華德參照的都是他人公布于1971、1978、2003年但在幾年后又被擱置的報告。大臣們還可以另選新址，在政治紛爭較少、環境污染較輕的南郊蓋特威克機場擴建第二跑道。霍華德爵士和他的委員會并不支持這個想法，但他們也不否定這一方案的可行性。

Either way, a decision needs to be made, and swiftly. Mr Cameron may have several difficult rows on his hands already―over Europe, cuts to welfare and Scotland. But he also has a majority, and was elected on a promise to keep the economic recovery going. Without another runway, Britain’s economy will be weighed down on take-off.

不論如何，英國方面都必須盡快做出決定。卡梅倫目前已面臨有好幾個難題――歐洲問題，削減福利以及蘇格蘭問題。在保持經濟復蘇的承諾下，他所領導的保守黨在議會中仍占大多數并得以當選為執政黨。但如果希思羅機場不修建第三條起降跑道，英國航空業經濟的發展岌岌可危。